Number Sense is a regular column that uses data to help understand the grocery landscape.
As a numbers-loving grocery industry journalist, nothing commands my attention quite like a supermarket chain’s quarterly earnings report. That’s where I find a bounty of financial details that let me look under the hood to get a true gauge of a retailer’s performance.
But even with all the data bundled into those reports, I always gravitate to a single figure to get a quick sense of how well a company is doing: comparable store sales. And at least by that yardstick, it seems clear that the traditional grocery industry has stalled.
Kroger’s identical store sales for its latest quarter put an exclamation point on an alarming trend I’ve been chronicling for the past year or so. Even with all the steps the nation’s largest supermarket operator has taken to lure shoppers to stores and make the case that it offers great value on essential goods, Kroger has delivered steadily declining growth for four consecutive quarters when you measure its performance by how much money its existing stores took in compared to their sales a year ago.
The company’s comparable-store sales moved up during its second quarter by just 0.2%, a figure that was down from an already low level of 1% during the previous quarter — and more than 3 percentage points from where it was during the second quarter of 2025.
Kroger is hardly alone in watching its comps wither away. Ahold Delhaize’s U.S. grocery banners have also turned in weak comps for several straight quarters, with the figure slipping below 1% during the company’s most recent reporting period.
Albertsons’ same-store sales are in even worse shape, as the grocer turned in a decline for that metric in its most recent quarter.
Traditional grocers are losing momentum
These sobering top-line statistics couldn’t come at a worse time for the traditional supermarket sector, which has been trying for years to find its footing as discounters and mass retailers storm ahead. To draw customers into their stores and build lasting relationships with them, grocers need to be able to invest in price reductions, remodeling campaigns, wages and other priorities. But how do you take on extra costs when you have less money coming in?
In another reminder of where shoppers’ minds are, Sprouts Farmers Market’s once-lofty same-store sales plummeted since reaching the double-digits in early 2025 and have come in negative for the last two quarters. Sprouts might not be a traditional grocer, but the trouble it’s been having connecting with shoppers underscores the fact that people are turning away from retailers they don’t associate with saving money.
Michael Infranco, assistant vice president of retail intelligence company RetailStat, put the quandary the industry is facing into basic terms for me: “When you can’t grow the top line, you’re going to have to cut the expense line if you want to maintain profitability. It’s pretty much that simple,” he told me.
Compounding the existential risks traditional grocers are staring at is the fact that other types of food retailers are seeing their comparable-store sales come in at much healthier levels. Dollar General and Dollar Tree both saw their same-store sales move up at least 3.5% in their latest quarters while also generating robust consumable product sales growth, a clear sign that their low-price pitch is resonating with shoppers.
Walmart, meanwhile, posted grocery comps in the mid-single-digit range during its latest quarter, underscoring the retailer’s enduring image as a source of affordable groceries. Target’s food and beverage sales also performed well during that company’s most recent quarter.
All of this is unfolding as supermarket chains contend with headwinds that have put heavy stress on essential sources of revenue.
As I pointed out in this column last fall, traditional grocers have bled sales in the fresh department to mass merchants and club retailers, a trend that reflects the difficulty they have had in merchandising a key category. Even the decline in egg prices noticeably squeezed sales this year.
Wrap in the rising pressure grocers face because of declining pharmacy revenue from the federal government — an especially important source of top-line growth — and you get the kind of worrisome conditions that have put the grocery industry on its current difficult course.
