Dive Brief:
- The number of grocery products sold in the U.S. dropped by nearly 2% year over year in June, marking the fifth month in a row where the industry recorded negative unit growth, according to an analysis from Bain & Company and NielsenIQ released Thursday. Bain compiled the report using NielsenIQ data.
- The trend was strongest in the West, where unit sales were down 3% last month. The decline was least pronounced in the Northeast, where unit sales moved down 1.3%.
- While the grocery industry has seen negative unit growth in most months since March 2025, the trend has picked up momentum in 2026 as shopper pullback has outpaced pricing growth and inflation, Bain reported.
Dive Insight:
Pressure on grocery sales has mounted against a backdrop of rising gas prices, steady grocery inflation and reduced participation in SNAP, Bain reported.
According to data from the management consulting firm, eight in 10 people in the U.S. say they are trying to spend less, with nearly 30% making a concerted effort to reduce grocery expenses. Among people looking to spend less on groceries, more than half are moving to lower-priced brands and over 40% are turning more to coupons and promotions. Notably, half are simply buying fewer items.
Those factors conspired to push grocery unit sales down during every month since February, when the figure was off by 2%. Unit sales declined 1.8% in June and 1.9% in May after falling 2.2% in April. Unit sales in January — the only month since June 2025 where Bain recorded unit sales growth for the grocery industry — were up by 1.7%
Bain added that the decision by some grocery shoppers to turn to e-commerce helped contribute to the sustained decline because online shoppers generally have smaller baskets. Interest in GLP-1 medication has also played a role, Bain said, noting that its data shows that between 30% and 40% of people who use those drugs say they are actively looking to buy fewer groceries.
The data make clear that grocers need to step up their pitches to shoppers to counter the economic strains people are facing, Kurt Grichel, head of Bain & Company’s Americas Retail practice and co-author of the report, said in a statement.
“[The] path back to growth is not just about low prices, but a value story that shoppers believe in and come back for,” Grichel said. “Retailers that respond with precision – on assortment, promotion, and private label – will be best placed to capture the trips that are still up for grabs.”
