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Thanksgiving is days away, and a host is planning dinner for 12. One guest is gluten-free, another is vegetarian, and the budget is $150. She types it all into an AI assistant and gets back a menu, a cooking timeline, and a shopping list in seconds.
This year, she’ll still fill her cart herself. But as AI moves from helping shoppers find products to choosing and completing purchases on their behalf, grocers have a lot at stake. Kearney research found 86% of consumers care more about whether a product works than about the brand name attached to it, and that same thinking may soon apply to where and how they choose to shop. In a separate Kearney survey, only 5.9% would tell an AI to buy a trusted grocery brand over a cheaper one. An agent free to pick the cheapest option could squeeze grocers’ already thin margins even further.
Grocers still hold an advantage in shopper trust and data. That opens the door to competing on more than price by solving the problem behind the list: what to make tonight, how to stay on budget, and how to feed a table with different diets. Kearney’s latest consumer research reveals where to start, and why now.
AI is moving from the search bar to the kitchen table
AI is already part of how many consumers get things done. In Kearney’s research, 74% have tried an AI tool, and 33% use one regularly. So far, most AI shopping assistance has centered on discovery, and brands have raced to show up in its recommendations.
The bigger shift comes when AI starts buying for shoppers, solving everyday problems around health, time, and money. Often, those problems start in the kitchen: deciding what to make for dinner, comparing prices, using what’s in the fridge before it spoils. Kearney’s Future Consumer research found 68% of consumers would let technology handle a task because it saves time, the top reason cited.
The rise of “quick commerce,” in which shoppers shift from planned shopping trips to immediate, in-the-moment problem-solving, adds urgency. More shoppers are deciding on dinner at 6 p.m. instead of planning a weekly shop — a natural fit for an AI assistant’s help. Groceries already top the quick commerce list: 60% of consumers who use quick commerce say they've ordered groceries through it, more than any other category.
“When consumers begin using quick commerce, their habits change. They plan less, buy smaller baskets less often, and are less loyal to their retailer,” says Katherine Black, a partner at Kearney.
“The holidays, in particular, are a time when everything feels maxed out and consumers will choose a fast, convenient solution,” adds Katie Thomas, who leads the Kearney Consumer Institute. DoorDash data illustrates the point: In 2024, Thanksgiving Eve was the company’s biggest grocery delivery day of the year, with orders nearly 90% above average.
Shoppers want both help and control
Consumers still want control but will gradually give it up for convenience. In Kearney’s Future Consumer study, about a third of consumers are already open to technology’s help with grocery shopping and meal planning: 26% would let it suggest options, and 7% would let it decide and purchase. The other 65% still prefer to do it themselves.
“Consumers want perceived control,” says Thomas. “They often want to feel like they are part of the decision at some point in the process, whether that’s at the shortlisting or purchase stage.” For grocers, the near-term opportunity is the suggestion stage, such as a “you’re low on milk” alert, and trust earned there can carry over to automatic reordering.
AI also needs context, and shoppers are selective about what they’ll share. Many are comfortable sharing the foods and meals they like (42%) or what they have on hand (35%), but fewer would give a tech provider their retailer shopping history (29%) or loyalty account information (27%). This gives grocers an edge, since they already hold the data shoppers hesitate to share with a third party.
AI agents don’t browse the aisles
An AI agent won’t notice eye-catching packaging, linger at an endcap display, or toss a seasonal treat into the cart on a whim. Instead, it weighs price, convenience, and other criteria, leaving less room for the unplanned purchases and cross-sells that build a bigger basket.
Kearney modeled what happens if 60% of consumers shop through AI agents. Smaller baskets, price transparency, higher fulfillment costs, and platform fees could lower operating margins by 2 to 5 percentage points or more, and retail media revenue could shift to the agent platforms. That’s a lot of pressure for an industry where food retailers averaged a 2.1% net profit in 2025, according to FMI, The Food Industry Association.
Brand loyalty helps, up to a point. In Kearney’s research, 60% of online shoppers want the brand they requested, but 40% are fine with a substitute. That flexibility could give grocers’ store brands an opening. The holidays may be the exception, however. “The holidays are a time of tradition, and that can often include a specific brand that consumers would not want substituted,” Thomas explains.
Grocers already have the ingredients to solve dinner
Grocers start with an advantage over tech companies: Shoppers trust retailers more than the best-performing tech option for routine purchases (33% vs. 21%). Paired with purchase history, loyalty data, and frequent customer contact, that trust paves the way for what Black calls moving from “shopping utility” to “life utility.” In practice, that means merchandising solutions instead of individual items: dinner ideas that go beyond the prepared foods case or stay within a budget or diet.
Hungryroot is one example. The company started out selling healthy packaged foods, then rebuilt itself around grocery baskets personalized to each household’s preferences. By 2023, AI selected about 70% of what its customers bought.
For grocers, the opportunity lies in asking which consumer problems they can help solve.
Start with this season’s table
Back to our fictional host. Her AI-planned holiday meal meets every requirement with minimal effort: mixed diets, budget, just-right quantities. Shoppers like her give grocers an ideal test kitchen for solution-led offers such as meal bundles or diet-friendly menus.
“Holiday is a critical inflection point in how consumers may change their behavior,” Black notes. Shoppers who try rapid delivery or AI agents now may stick with them, she adds. “Retailers should know how to identify those signals in their data and apply hypercare to retain those consumers in the long run.”
With years of purchase history and more shopper trust than tech companies, grocers are well placed to be part of consumers’ AI-assisted dinner plans.
Get ahead of the next shift in how shoppers buy. Explore the Kearney Consumer Research Institute or talk with its retail experts.
