Dive Brief:
- Prices for everyday household purchases rose 2% in March compared with the same period in 2025, according to figures released Wednesday by data analysis firm Numerator.
- The reading is lower than the 2.7% year-over-year pace Numerator’s Consumer Goods Price Index recorded in February.
- Numerator’s gauge of inflation found that consumer costs for everyday items declined by a fraction of a percent in March when viewed through a month-to-month lens.
Dive Insight:
Numerator underscored that while its statistics show that inflation was slower in March, price stability remains elusive. The firm pointed to rising supply chain costs stemming from the war in the Middle East as a key risk factor that it said could push prices up as the year unfolds.
Data from Numerator also indicate that people at the lower end of the income spectrum are feeling inflation more acutely than those who earn more money. Low-income consumers have seen prices for everyday household goods rise by 33.5% since January 2018, compared with a national average of 31.6%.
Gen Z consumers and those in the South have also experienced higher levels of inflation over the past eight years, Numerator said.
“[L]ower-income consumers remain focused on rising prices, while higher-income households are more concerned about global conflicts that could shape inflation in the months ahead,” Numerator Senior Economist Paul Stanley said in a statement.
Numerator compiles its Consumer Goods Price Index using verified, item-level transaction data from a group of 200,000 U.S. households. The index closely mirrors the Personal Consumption Expenditures index for food and beverages published by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, according to Numerator.
Numerator related its latest measures of inflation a day after the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data reported that people have become less optimistic about their household financial situations.
The center’s March Survey of Consumer Expectations found that the percentage of households that believe their financial circumstances will weaken during the year ahead was the highest since April 2025. The survey, which reflects responses from about 1,300 household heads, also found that people expect their spending to increase during the coming year.
